In an era marked by rapid changes in global trade dynamics, the ability of companies to respond swiftly to tariff fluctuations has become a critical determinant of competitive advantage. At Celosphere 2025, held in Munich, industry leaders showcased how they are leveraging process intelligence and artificial intelligence (AI) to navigate the complexities of supply chain management amidst these challenges. The event highlighted the urgent need for businesses to evolve their operational strategies to remain agile in the face of unpredictable tariff changes.
The stakes are high: when tariffs shift overnight, companies often have just 48 hours to model alternatives and implement changes before competitors seize the best options. This time constraint underscores the importance of having robust systems in place that can provide real-time insights and facilitate rapid decision-making. The presentations from various enterprises at Celosphere illustrated how innovative approaches to supply chain management can yield significant benefits, transforming potential disruptions into opportunities for growth.
One standout example was Vinmar International, a global distributor of plastics and chemicals. The company has successfully created a real-time digital twin of its $3 billion supply chain, which has enabled it to cut default expedites by more than 20%. This digital twin allows Vinmar to visualize its entire supply chain in real time, providing the agility needed to respond to changes in demand or supply conditions. By integrating data from various sources, Vinmar can quickly assess the impact of tariff changes on its operations and make informed decisions that enhance delivery performance across its global network.
Florida Crystals, one of America’s largest cane sugar producers, also demonstrated the transformative power of process intelligence. The company unlocked millions in working capital by streamlining its operations and eliminating manual rework across finance, procurement, and inbound supply. By deploying AI pilots, Florida Crystals has extended its gains into areas such as invoice processing, predictive maintenance, and order management. This holistic approach not only strengthens supply chain resilience but also enhances overall operational efficiency, allowing the company to better navigate the complexities of modern trade.
ASOS, the well-known e-commerce fashion giant, showcased its commitment to transparency and speed in its supply chain operations. By connecting its end-to-end supply chain, ASOS has reduced process variation and accelerated its speed to market, significantly improving customer experience. The integration of process intelligence has allowed ASOS to gain visibility into its supply chain, enabling it to respond more effectively to shifts in consumer demand and external market conditions.
The common thread among these success stories is the application of process intelligence, which bridges the gaps that traditional enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems often leave unaddressed. While systems like SAP, Oracle, and PeopleSoft are rich in data, they frequently fall short in providing the actionable insights necessary for timely decision-making. As Peter Budweiser, General Manager of Supply Chain at Celonis, aptly stated, “The question isn’t whether disruptions will hit; it’s whether your systems can show you what’s breaking fast enough to fix it.”
This visibility gap can cost companies millions in working capital and competitive positioning. With 54% of supply chain leaders reporting daily disruptions, the pressure is mounting on AI agents to execute real actions—such as triggering purchase orders, rerouting shipments, and adjusting inventory levels. However, if these autonomous agents operate on outdated or siloed data, they risk making costly mistakes, particularly when tariff structures change unexpectedly.
The evolving landscape of global trade has transformed tariffs from predictable costs into strategic tools that can significantly impact a company’s bottom line. When new rates are introduced with unprecedented frequency, input costs can spike, prompting finance teams to scramble to calculate margin impacts while procurement teams race to identify alternative suppliers. In this high-stakes environment, the ability to model “what-if” scenarios becomes essential. Process intelligence enables businesses to continuously simulate different scenarios, illustrating how tariff changes cascade through suppliers, contracts, production lines, warehouses, and ultimately, customers.
As Manik Sharma, Head of Supply Chain GTM AI at Celonis, noted, “What’s changed is the speed at which disruptions cascade. Traditional ERP systems weren’t built for today’s volatility.” Companies often find themselves generating thousands of reports detailing past performance, yet struggle to answer critical questions about future scenarios, such as the implications of a sudden 25% increase in tariffs.
To address these challenges, organizations must recognize that there is no effective AI without process intelligence. AI requires operational context to function optimally, and without it, AI agents operate blindly, potentially leading to decisions that exacerbate existing issues. The ongoing migration wave among SAP customers—from ECC to S/4HANA—illustrates this point. While moving to newer databases may offer faster access to data, it does not inherently solve the problem of supply chain visibility. What companies truly need is a comprehensive understanding of how work flows across their existing systems.
Kerry Brown, a transformation evangelist at Celonis, emphasized this need for clarity: “Organizations are shifting from PeopleSoft to Oracle, or EBS to Fusion. The bulk is in SAP. But what they really need isn’t a new ERP. They need to understand how work actually flows across systems they already have.” Achieving this level of insight requires end-to-end operational context, which process intelligence provides by enabling companies to extract and connect event data across systems, revealing how processes execute in real time.
This distinction is particularly crucial when deploying autonomous agents. In environments where visibility is fragmented, these agents may make decisions that seem rational in isolation but lead to downstream disruptions. With real-time context provided by process intelligence, AI can operate with clarity and precision, allowing supply chains to stay ahead of tariff-driven disruptions.
The concept of digital twins emerged as a powerful tool for enabling real-time responses to supply chain challenges. The companies highlighted at Celosphere applied the principle of understanding how processes run across systems in real time. Celonis’ process intelligence creates a digital twin above existing systems, utilizing its Process Intelligence Graph to link orders, shipments, invoices, and payments end-to-end. This integration reveals dependencies that traditional systems often overlook, allowing companies to see the immediate impact of delays or changes across their entire supply chain.
Daniel Brown, Chief Product Officer at Celonis, explained, “The platform brings together process data spanning systems and departments, enriched with business context that powers AI agents to transform operations effectively.” This cross-system awareness enables Celonis to coordinate actions across complex workflows involving AI agents, humans, and automations—especially critical when tariffs necessitate rapid decisions regarding suppliers, shipments, and customer commitments.
A key advancement unveiled at Celosphere was the introduction of zero-copy integration with Databricks and Microsoft Fabric. Traditionally, analyzing supply chain data required copying information from source systems into central warehouses, resulting in data latency. Celonis Data Core now integrates directly with platforms like Databricks, allowing companies to query billions of records in near real time without duplication. This capability means that when trade policies shift, companies can model alternatives instantly rather than waiting for overnight data refresh cycles.
Enhanced task mining further extends this capability by connecting desktop activity—such as keystrokes, mouse clicks, and screen scrolls—to business processes. This connection exposes manual work that is often invisible to system logs, including spreadsheet gymnastics, email negotiations, and phone calls that keep supply chains moving during urgent changes.
As global trade volatility continues to intensify, the companies that can model and adapt quickly will emerge as leaders in their respective markets. Most organizations cannot simply rip out and replace the systems that underpin their critical operations, nor should they. Instead, process intelligence offers a pathway to compose workflows from existing systems, deploy AI where it creates value, and continuously adapt as conditions change. This “Free the Process” movement liberates companies from rigid architectures without necessitating wholesale replacements.
When the next wave of tariffs hits—and it undoubtedly will—companies will not have days to respond; they will have hours. The pressing question is not whether an ERP system captures the necessary data, but whether those systems can connect the dots quickly enough to make a meaningful impact. In this rapidly evolving landscape, the ability to leverage process intelligence and AI will be the defining factor that separates successful companies from those that falter in the face of disruption.
In conclusion, the insights shared at Celosphere 2025 underscore the critical importance of process intelligence in navigating the complexities of modern supply chains. As businesses face increasing volatility in global trade, those that embrace innovative technologies and methodologies will be better positioned to turn challenges into opportunities. The future of supply chain management lies in the ability to respond swiftly and intelligently to changing conditions, and process intelligence is the key to unlocking that potential.